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MANIFOLD
Will Azerbaijan attack Armenia by Dec 15th 2023?
34
Ṁ630Ṁ13k
resolved Dec 15
Resolved
NO

YES if military troops of Azerbaijan will cross at least for a 1 day official Armenian border on any OSINT map before 16th of December.

P.S. Previously occupied or contested terrirories (~ 50 km2) not counted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis_%282021%E2%80%93present%29

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@PeterBuyukliev Can this resolve?

@EvanDaniel dude, give me a few hours 😄

@PeterBuyukliev Oops! I think I got it confused with a different open tab. Sorry about that!

predictedYES

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/blinken-warned-lawmakers-azerbaijan-may-invade-armenia-in-coming-weeks-00121500

Blinken responded that the State Department was looking at avenues to hold Azerbaijan accountable and isn’t planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku. He added that State saw a possibility that Azerbaijan would invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.