According to Kara Swisher "There are about to be a lot more major departures of top folks at OpenAI tonight". Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are already out.
Please only add public figures to this market, and respect the privacy of civilian OpenAI employees.
EDIT 11/29 10:38 am (PT): I am reopening this market to let people continue to trade. This market will still resolve based on who left OpenAI before Friday Nov 24th, 5:32 pm (PT). People who left after this time will resolve as not having left. People who left and then rejoined before this time will resolve as having left.
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Allegedly no employees left: https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board
@DanielFilan Yeah seems like no one left, and the board didn’t change until today? I’d mark Yes on “no one” and everything else No?
@DanielFilan The last thing we heard was an agreement “in principle” which means not signed and the small details not worked out yet, until this formal statement today from Altman as CEO, announcing the board changes. I’ve been in these kinds of discussions and I doubt they hammered it out over Thanksgiving, signed it, and then failed to announce for a whole weekend and a couple more days. I think the burden of proof is on paperwork having been signed substantially before any announcement
@DanielFilan Helen Toner said on twitter that she officially left today: https://twitter.com/hlntnr/status/1730034017435586920
"Today, I officially resigned from the OpenAI board.
Thank you to the many friends, colleagues, and supporters who have said publicly & privately that they know our decisions have always been driven by our commitment to OpenAI’s mission."
This market has reopened to allow people to trade based on rumors/news/etc. It still resolves based on the original time period (see description).
Is this ready to resolve? If it is not resolving while we wait for more info, should it remain open so folks can continue trading the rumors / news / etc.? (If reopening it, I would suggest adding the end date for the period in question to the title.)
@EvanDaniel Thanks, yeah I don't feel fully ready to resolve this, was hoping we'd have learned the answer yesterday. The main uncertainty is if the board members Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley left OpenAI before Friday Nov 24th, 5:32 pm (PT).
I'll reopen the market, and edit the title and description.
I'm confused. I thought Tasha and Helen were off the board. Or does that take more time to confirm?
@ChrisLeong When Greg Brockman stepped down as the chair of the board, he did not leave OpenAI. Neither has Ilya.
So, they (Tasha and Helen) may be off the board, but do you know if they're still employees of OpenAI?
@firstuserhere I'm sure they are.
I was talking about Tasha and Helen who aren't separately employees.
@ChrisLeong Yeah, they appear to have been separate:
OpenAI’s board of directors consists of OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, independent directors Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo, technology entrepreneur Tasha McCauley, and Georgetown Center for Security and Emerging Technology’s Helen Toner.
In that case, i'm also confused about the pricing of the market. I could correct it myself, but now I feel like I'm missing something - clearly two people on the board who weren't employees of OpenAI leaving the board implies that they've left OpenAI. Unless we find that they've been given some other job at OpenAI, which seems very very unlikely!
@firstuserhere OK Got it. So, they've been removed from the old board and there's been a new board announced with a few initial members. It's still possible (Though unlikely) that the new board also has these two as board members.
@firstuserhere This market closes soon and I'm not sure the old board has actually been replaced yet. "agreement in principle" etc. That's why these probabilities are so close to 50% so close to ending: It's uncertainty about whether it's already happened or whether the paperwork still needs to be signed.
Only 4% probability on it taking more than 63 hours for the board swap to be finalized, on Thanksgiving weekend?
Seems, uh, low.
https://manifold.markets/notarealuser/who-will-be-the-members-of-the-boar?r=bm90YXJlYWx1c2Vy
This will be interesting to bet on too
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