Context
In July 2022, the IMF noted that the Russian economy was less affected than initially expected by Western sanctions and that its GDP should only fall around 6% in 2022.
Resolution
This question will be judged by Russia's real GDP figures to be released by the IMF in 2023. It will resolve yes if the GDP grows or shrinks by less than 6%.
Edit 2022-10-17: That is, if it grows by any positive amount it resolves YES. If it shrinks by less than 6% (grows by more than -6%) it resolves YES. If it shrinks by more than 6% (grows by less than -6%) it resolves NO.
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@FrancescoDondi I'm not sure what specific data the IMF uses, and major organizations' numbers differ, but none are higher than than 6%.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/
The January 2023 IMF report has an estimate of -2.2%. While this might still change, I don't think it might conceivably reach -6%.