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MANIFOLD
Another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
22
Ṁ1kṀ12k
resolved Sep 19
Resolved
YES

I don't think I've ever heard of an attack like the recent Lebanon pager explosions.

This resolves YES if there is any attack anywhere in the world involving:

  • At least 100 devices

  • Rigged, hacked or otherwise deliberately made to cause injury or death

  • The devices appear to be peaceful devices like phones or pagers, not weapons

  • Part of a coordinated attack by one group against another (i.e. 100 isolated murder attempts don't count)

  • Before Jan 1st 2026 (market closes later in case details take a while to be confirmed)

I'm also curious if this has ever happened before the Lebanon pager explosions, and if there's a name for this kind of attack. Let me know in the comments.

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I'm tempted to say this is just a continuation of the previous attack, but since it involves radios and phones instead of pagers I'll count it as a separate attack.

300 injured, is that sufficient scale? @Paulf4db

sold Ṁ22 NO

Crazy market this is…”Will X happen within a year? Unlikely, 35% or so” and then it literally happens in less than 24 hours 😮

Nothing ever ha... YES

Scale unclear right now but: