Modern Horizons 3 is releasing soon and has had a lot of cards spoiled. Gavin has said that at least one card is likely to be banned in pauper, and past Modern Horizons sets have seen bans in modern.
Each answer resolves YES when the card in question is banned or restricted in any format after it's release date.
Preemptive bans/restrictions on set release, such as those used in historic, or reprints of cards that are already banned/restricted in some format are not counted as bans for this purpose - though cards that are reprinted in MH3 and later banned/restricted in any formats do count.
This is only including cards with the MH3 set code - not special guests, list cards or cards in the associated commander set, but including reprints in the main set.
Please add more cards to the list as you think they will be banned (or think they won't be) - I have filled the list based on speculation I have seen.
1,000
3.00https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/banned-and-restricted-december-16-2024
Psychic Frog, Vexing Vauble (not on list) in legacy
Amped Raptor in modern
@PaulMaynard Guide of Souls was nerfed in Historic recently. Does this resolve the market for the card?
It shows as legal to me I think rebalancing is meaningfully different than banning, regardless of arena implementation details.
Sorry, Scryfall hasn’t updated for this rebalancing yet. Here’s an example: https://scryfall.com/search?q=teferi+time+raveler&unique=cards&as=grid&order=name
don't feel super strongly here, but personally i agree that in the spirit of the question, how scryfall/etc logs the cards doesn't really determine how the question should resolve. in the way people normally discuss it, i'd say that bans/restrictions are referred to as something distinct & different from Arena balance updates (and no one says that teferi was banned and a new card was printed in its place, i feel like that just reflects how the programs need to log a balance change).
I’ve sold my position on Guide of Souls (retaining discharge because I think holding maximizes my equity given fees and the possibility of a ban in Modern or Pauper), but just for the sake of argument I’ll point out that IMO they are abusing rebalancing to avoid having to refund wildcards for bans. The Ocelot Pride “rebalance” was simply adding 1 generic mana to the cost, which is typically functionally a ban.
Banning the other half of a combo or printing a sufficiently good hate piece can also functionally be a ban. I'm not going to argue with you on wotc's business practices, I agree with you there. I don't like rebalances not refunding wildcards. Next time I do one of these I'll likely either specify rebalancing or include a separate market for it, since rebalancing is also done to improve cards, not just weaken them.
What formats count?
I assume you wouldn't count "my friends and I invented a new format, we played one game of it, and then we banned every single MH3 card", and that you would count Commander despite its ban list not being managed by WotC.
But what about things like Oathbreaker and Penny Dreadful? What about random one-off formats on Arena that show up for limited-time events?
I think a format counts for me as long as they are sanctioned by wotc, have permanent or frequent queues on one of the clients, or have a significant (not sure on a number here?) player base
maybe a good standard is if it has a page on the wiki
i think a format like penny dreadful counts (though only if a card is banned, not if it falls out of legality by price)
i'm unsure about how to handle pointed formats like canlander - my impulse is to count that as a restriction, but i don't really know
Cranial Ram is preemptively banned, so not banned after release.
https://x.com/gavinverhey/status/1798731582968361160?s=46&t=qi1o6RyUrqXpL2zaAu4wJQ
@PaulMaynard Obviously, shame on me for not reading carefully. But this is a pretty counter-intuitive caveat. Can you elaborate on why you included it? I see you mention the Historic format, but was that really likely to apply to this market?
@themightysalmon I wanted this to be about cards banned for unanticipated reasons - pre-banned cards, such as ram or ones announced in historic the other day, are just cards not intended for that particular format, so I didn't include them in my definition. The flares were banned in historic as well for the same reason.
Truthfully I was expecting them to give it a little time in pauper to see how it played, and was betting accordingly myself.
@themightysalmon Though on second thought I really should unresolve it since it could still be banned in other formats. Whoops.
I can't do it myself though because it's too old. How do I fix this?
@Ziddletwix @mods can you unresolve cranial ram on this market? i erroneously resolved it because i though it was closed but it's still up in the air.
@PaulMaynard I can't unresolve it. I think this may be related to an old thing where you couldn't unresolve in general in multi-outcome independent markets. I think that's a Manifold limitation, and equally true for mods and regular users.
@Gen Thanks. Can you remove or N/A the duplicate one I made? Sorry for causing confusion