How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025?
At least one
At least two
At least three
At least four

Modern Horizons 3 is a Magic: The Gathering set that comes out in June 2024. Modern is one of the playable formats of Magic: The Gathering. How many of the cards MH3 introduces to Modern will be banned in that format before the end of 2025?

The cards that count for this are:

  • The brand new cards that are being printed for the first time in MH3.

  • The new-to-Modern reprints, where their printing in MH3 is what makes them Modern-legal when they weren't previously.

Any cards reprinted in the set that were already legal in Modern before its release don't count.

I will count cards as "banned" as soon as the ban is announced - we don't have to wait for the effective date.

Each answer resolves YES as soon as that many MH3 cards have been banned in Modern. At the end of 2025, any remaining answers resolve NO.

Base rates: Two cards from the first Modern Horizons have been banned in Modern: Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis and Arcum's Astrolabe. One card from Modern Horizons 2 has been banned in Modern: Fury. Both MH1 bans occurred within a year and a half of release, but Fury was banned about two and a half years after release.

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Arbitrage opportunity: At the time of this comment there's a 6% difference between 'At least one' on this market and 'At least one card banned in Modern' in my market:


This one closes a year later than yours though.

Woops, misread the title as 'by 2025'.