Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the MATCH Act (formally the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, introduced in the 119th Congress as H.R. 8170 / S. 4281, or any substantially identical successor legislation bearing the MATCH Act short title) is enacted into United States federal law before January 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Enactment requires that:

1. The bill is signed into law by the President of the United States; or

2. The bill becomes law without presidential signature (e.g., following the expiration of the constitutional 10-day period); or

3. A presidential veto is successfully overridden by both chambers of Congress.

If the core provisions of the MATCH Act are incorporated into and enacted as part of an omnibus package, authorization act (such as the National Defense Authorization Act), or other broader legislative vehicle before the deadline, this market will resolve to YES provided that official legislative tracking sources (such as Congress.gov) document the enactment of the MATCH Act provisions.

Resolution will be verified using official congressional records on Congress.gov or the official publications of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA).

Background

The Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act was introduced in the 119th Congress as H.R. 8170 in the House (led by Rep. Michael Baumgartner) and S. 4281 in the Senate (led by Sen. Pete Ricketts and Sen. Andy Kim).

The bipartisan bill targets semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) export control gaps. It would require U.S. allies—most notably the Netherlands and Japan—to match U.S. restrictions on exporting advanced chipmaking tools (such as deep ultraviolet immersion lithography systems) and providing post-sale servicing to Chinese semiconductor manufacturers within 150 days. If allied governments fail to implement equivalent restrictions, the legislation authorizes the Department of Commerce to enforce expanded extraterritorial export controls unilaterally on foreign tools containing U.S. components.

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