Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if NASA or Katalyst Space Technologies officially announces that the Swift Boost mission has successfully rendezvoused with, docked with, and raised the orbit of the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory to a stable, higher altitude (targeting approximately 370 miles / 600 kilometers) by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• The mission is officially declared a failure or is aborted by NASA or Katalyst Space Technologies before the deadline.

• The LINK servicing spacecraft fails to rendezvous, dock, or successfully raise Swift's orbit by December 31, 2026.

• The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory undergoes uncontrolled atmospheric reentry or is otherwise destroyed.

The primary sources of truth will be official updates from NASA's Swift Mission page and the Swift Boost Mission page, alongside official press releases from Katalyst Space Technologies or reports from major aerospace media.

Background

The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, launched by NASA in 2004 to study gamma-ray bursts, has experienced accelerated orbital decay due to increased atmospheric drag from solar activity. Because the observatory lacks on-board propulsion, it was projected to reenter Earth's atmosphere by the end of 2026 without intervention.

To rescue the $500 million space telescope, NASA awarded a $30 million rapid-development contract to Arizona-based startup Katalyst Space Technologies to perform a first-of-its-kind commercial robotic servicing mission. Katalyst's LINK spacecraft successfully launched into orbit on July 3, 2026, from Kwajalein Atoll aboard a Northrop Grumman Pegasus XL rocket.

LINK is designed to spend several weeks checking its systems and maneuvering to rendezvous with Swift. It will attempt to capture the telescope using three robotic arms and use its low-power ion thrusters to boost Swift's altitude to approximately 373 miles (600 km). The orbit-raising process is expected to take 10 to 12 weeks once docking is achieved.

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