Resolution criteria

• Yes Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2050 (11:59 PM UTC), the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) or a peer-reviewed scientific paper using SKA data officially announces the confirmed detection of either a biosignature or a technosignature from an extraterrestrial source.

• No Resolution: This market will resolve to NO if no such confirmed detection has been officially announced by the cutoff date.

• Definitions:

  • Biosignature: Chemical, physical, or atmospheric properties (such as out-of-equilibrium gases, dimethyl sulfide, or complex organic molecules) that provide scientific evidence of past or present extraterrestrial biological life.

  • Technosignature: Any measurable signal or property (such as narrow-band radio transmissions or signs of astroengineering) providing evidence of advanced extraterrestrial technology.

• Source of Truth: Official announcements from the SKAO website or a peer-reviewed publication in a prominent scientific journal (e.g., Nature, Science, or The Astrophysical Journal).

• Disputes: If a candidate signal is detected but its biological or artificial origin remains unconfirmed, highly disputed, or classified as a likely false positive (such as radio frequency interference) by the scientific community at the time of the cutoff date, it will not count, and the market will resolve to NO.

Background

The Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) is an international mega-science project building the world's largest radio telescope arrays in Australia and South Africa. One of its key scientific pillars is organized under "The Cradle of Life" working group, which focuses on prebiotic chemistry, planet formation, and the search for extraterrestrial life.

While optical space telescopes (such as the James Webb Space Telescope or the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory) focus primarily on analyzing planetary atmospheres for biological gases, the SKA's extreme radio sensitivity allows for different pathways:

1. Prebiotic Chemistry: Detecting the molecular line transitions of complex amino acids and precursors to life in stellar and planetary nurseries.

2. Technosignatures (SETI): Scanning millions of stars for radio emissions, planet-to-planet leakage, or radar signals that would indicate technological civilizations.

Because the scientific search for life encompasses both biological markers (biosignatures) and technological markers (technosignatures), this market is designed to resolve to YES upon the confirmed discovery of either signal category using SKA observations.

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