Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?
13
1kṀ1329
2027
7%
chance

Background

Breakthrough Listen is the most comprehensive search for alien communications to date, utilizing advanced telescopes for observing radio waves and visible light from one million nearby stars and 100 galaxy centers. The project began in 2016 and is expected to last for 10 years. As of 2024, no communications have been detected.

Past Results:

  • April 2017: Initial results released, observing 692 stars with no extraterrestrial signals found.

  • August 2017: Detected 15 radio bursts from a galaxy 3 billion light-years away. Indeterminate findings.

  • December 2017: Observed 'Oumuamua for radio emissions; none detected.

  • December 2018: Searched Boyajian's Star for laser emissions; none found.

  • January 2020: No artificial transmitters detected near 252 nearby stars.

  • December 2020: Identified a potential signal from Proxima Centauri, dubbed BLC1. Indeterminate findings.

  • May 2022: Targeted search for the Wow! Signal yielded no results.


Market Resolution

This is an open ended prediction market. Market will resolve based on credible media and institutional reports.

In the event the project receives funding beyond 2026, the market close date will be extended.


Disclaimer

I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

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