Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during the Starship Flight 14 mission, SpaceX actively executes an attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (the "ship", expected to be Ship 41) using the Mechazilla launch tower "chopstick" arms at Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas.

An attempt is considered "executed" if:

1. SpaceX flight controllers officially give the "go" command for the ship to target the launch tower for a catch, and the vehicle begins its final landing burn and approach toward the Starbase tower.

2. OR, if SpaceX officially confirms in their live broadcast, post-mission summary, or via official press statements that a catch attempt of the ship was initiated.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• SpaceX plans a water splashdown for the ship as the primary flight path and does not attempt a tower catch on Flight 14.

• The ship is diverted to a water splashdown (e.g., in the Gulf of Mexico or Indian Ocean) during flight due to off-nominal telemetry, safety limits, or an automated/manual abort before the final approach to the tower is initiated.

• The ship does not survive ascent, orbit, or atmospheric re-entry, or if the Flight 14 mission ends in a failure (RUD) prior to the landing/catch phase.

The primary source of truth will be the official SpaceX live broadcast, official updates on spacex.com, and official SpaceX statements on X (formerly Twitter).

Background

Following the Starship Flight 13 test on July 24, 2026—which concluded with the first-ever fully intact ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage (Ship 40) in the Indian Ocean—SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced plans to attempt a launch tower catch of the upper stage on Flight 14, pending a complete mission data review.

While SpaceX has previously demonstrated catching the Super Heavy booster, catching the 50-meter-tall Starship upper stage presents entirely new engineering hurdles. The upper stage enters the atmosphere at near-orbital velocities, subjecting its airframe, flap actuators, and catch pins to extreme thermal and structural loads prior to final deceleration. Flight 14 is expected to fly in Q3 2026 utilizing Ship 41 and Booster 21.

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