Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, for at least one calendar month in 2026 (January through December), the total net electricity production from natural gas for the "OECD Total" grouping is strictly lower than 200 TWh (equivalent to 200,000 GWh). It resolves to NO if every month in 2026 records natural gas electricity generation at or above this threshold.
Source of Truth: The market will resolve based on the official dataset published in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Monthly Electricity Statistics (MES).
Data Specification: Within the MES database or data browser, the target metric is under the regional grouping "OECD Total" for the fuel source "Natural gas" (net electricity production).
Timing and Revisions: The market will resolve once the IEA publishes the monthly data for all months of 2026 (expected by spring 2027). Revisions made by the IEA up to the time of resolution will be taken into account. Any retroactive revisions published after the market has been resolved will not alter the outcome.
Background
The 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have increasingly transitioned toward clean energy, with fossil fuel-based power generation structurally declining. Rapid capacity additions of wind and solar, alongside fluctuating seasonal demand, have begun to systematically displace thermal sources.
Historically, monthly OECD electricity production from natural gas has typically remained above 220 TWh (for example, falling to approximately 227 TWh in May 2025 and averaging 250–320 TWh in other months of 2024 and 2025). This market tracks whether rising renewable generation and favorable seasonal patterns will combine to push monthly natural gas electricity generation in the OECD below 200 TWh at least once in 2026.
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1,000