I'm working on creating a curated list of third-party validated markets themed on A.I. with the idea of creating much more objective deriviatives which are less risky to bet on from the standpoint of market-maker interpretation.
https://manifold.markets/group/third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0/questions
Sometimes I need to change the title or tweak some things, particularly early on to make sure the bets are explicitly spelled out. Sometimes this can include the title, which might affect the price of the bet.
This market is a general poll to see whether anyone on Manifold would be more likely to bet on a market if I provided, "insurance," in the form of $10 M guaranteed pay outs to users who bet early in the case that I have to change something, "significant."
As an, "insurance company," I will probably have to write out a full description of what this policy is and post it somewhere to specify what will and will not be covered on payouts.
I wonder if de-risking early betters for a token amount would incentivize me to better write markets, thereby creating a more trusting relationship between the market maker and better.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ26 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 |
@JohnSmithb9be I am not concerned about the league rating as much as the quality of the individual market, or just higher income on markets in general. I think market income can be more like a drip income over time, e.g. you could hypothetically make a huge amount over a multi-month time period, but perhaps not within the league month-long timeframe as you would will successful, albeit more risky betting.
So yeah, how do you get a market to be successful? You have to ask interesting questions, which is what seems to attract the largest markets, such as Eating Poop or Whales vs. Minnows, but rather than gambling on a huge number of failed markets that are meme-worthy, why not just create a much more reliable market-making service mechanism?
The $M 10 comes in because that's the minimum amount of a Manalink payout. If I could do $M 5 I would, because every new better nets 5, so it would effectively have no cost to do a universal payout and, "re-set" the market at any point.
With a $M 10 payout minimum, I would have to put together some rules about who receives damages and who does not.