I would like to create a third party metric by which this bet can be mapped, rather than just having it be based upon opinion, so I will encourage discussion within the first couple of months here, and then thereafter we should land on a metric that we can follow.
My thoughts on what we could look at:
On the Centralized AI Side:
Public revenue and/or usage numbers coming on SEC reports, pulling apart AI to the extent that may even be possible.
Publicized user numbers and revenue numbers in credible news sources.
On the Open Source Side:
Github Star Growth
Any other public repository growth
Count of verified usage of Open Source LLM's by large companies, particularly those who would have hypothetically been OpenAI and Google's customers.
Based upon whatever we can pick to be a good set of metrics from above, we can then set a ratio, and then a threshold for which that ratio being passed.
As for now I'm just not sure how to really pin this down into a measureable bet, but I would like to open it for any takers. Please bet with caution for the time being as it's not super well defined, but please do bet small amounts so that you can start getting engaged in the discussion and get some skin in the game.
I will take suggestions from people who have bet anything, at least $1M over anyone who is just passing by and commenting with no bet.
YES = Open Source Win by end of June 2024
NO = Centralized Companies Win by end of June 2024
1,000
3.00inactive creator, market closed for a month. By the end of june 2024 OS LLMs don't appear to have beat 'the vast majority' of closed source moat by either revenue or user count (or benchmarks). Llama 3 405b release was after the end of june, planning to resolve no
Found this repo which seems to be linking to multiple LLM leaderboards, though I haven't had a chance to review it very fully yet. https://github.com/Hannibal046/Awesome-LLM#llm-leaderboard