Personal: Will I Successfully Write and Publish a Substack Article On Time Every Two Weeks for the Remainder of 2023?
25
157
แน€470
resolved Oct 24
Resolved
NO

20230829 - To clarify the market further from some of the comments from @RobertCousineau ... in some instances, I may publish a few days early, if I feel my audience will not read if I publish on my normal Monday schedule. For example, I published on June 30th rather than the week of July 4th, because the majority of my audience is from the United States, and there was a 4th of July holiday coming up, where I know from experience people are not active online. Other examples may include but are not limited to MEA Week, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas/Ramadan/New Year/Jewish Holidays, President's Day/MLK, etc. and so on, taking into account a US holiday schedule. Again, I may or may not publish a few days early, it just depends upon how the holiday lands within the week. "ON TIME," will mean, either every two weeks or slightly early, for the purposes of creating maximum impact.

If you bet on this market and felt that you lost mana because of this lack of clarification please comment below and I will compensate you.

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Dang I am sorry everyone, I missed yesterday. I had a huge life event change. I had aimed to pre-schedule out a bunch of polished out posts for the remainder of the year in anticipation for this, but it is really hard to write that last 10% of an article before hitting publish.

I am going to start another market on this for the remainder of the year. Thank you for following this and for believing in me for those who did. Obviously I am not happy with myself here but I just have to keep at it. Aiming to still publish this week, something smaller.

bought แน€200 of YES

Rooting for you!

bought แน€350 of NO

While I think you should definitely get credit for consistently making posts, it does not look like you succeeded in doing so every two week. After June 30th, it was 17 days until your next post. The two posts before were also 15 days apart.

bought แน€15 of NO

@RobertCousineau Technically there's a 14-day gap, but he's still publishing 26 posts in a year. Why would he be penalized for releasing the occasional article a few days early?

@RobertCousineau I released that one early due to the 4th of July week coming up in the following week. I could have easily released it on Monday with the scheduling function built-in to Substack but no one would have read it. I neglected to make a comment on here because I thought no one really cared as long as I did it ahead of schedule.

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley the question is "Will I publish on time, every two weeks". A seventeen day gap means he did not do so.

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau Early is on time.

sold แน€73 of NO

@PatrickDelaney for what it's worth, I certainly would have appreciated that comment/clarification.

There were two weeks with no posts. You say in the title, every two weeks.

I understand where you are coming from, but think that if you wanted the question to be "Will I publish >=2 articles every thirty day period" that's what the title should be, not "every two weeks".

FYI to those betting on this market. Again, I will not bet on this market. However, I wanted to mention that I have 15 drafts written, and there are 14 slots of the rest of the year. One of those drafts I will probably completely scrap. Writing a draft is of course different than a final article.

I accidentally published two scheduled articles today, the second one, on defeating the Gandalf LLM game was not intended to be an every two week article, but a bonus article. However thus far I am still on schedule for achieving this goal.

Wow, the No's are stacking up against me! Jeez, seems like a dare...?