Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme

Market Description
HellaSwag
HellaSWAG is a dataset for studying grounded commonsense inference. It consists of 70k multiple choice questions about grounded situations: each question comes from one of two domains -- activitynet or wikihow -- with four answer choices about what might happen next in the scene. The correct answer is the (real) sentence for the next event; the three incorrect answers are adversarially generated and human verified, so as to fool machines but not humans.
Example HellaSwag Question
A woman is outside with a bucket and a dog. The dog is running around trying to avoid a bath. She
a) rinses the bucket off with soap and blow dries the dog's head.
b) uses a hose to keep it from getting soapy.
c) gets the dog wet, then it runs away again.
d) gets into the bath tub with the dog.
Answer: C.
Two Leaderboards:
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/sentence-completion-on-hellaswag
https://leaderboard.allenai.org/hellaswag/submissions/public
Human performance is measured at 0.9560
Resolution Criteria
We will define Superintelligence for the purposes of this question as, "achieving 99% accuracy on the test in question."
Will any entry from the above two links result in a 99% Accuracy Rating? If so, resolves YES, otherwise NO.
20230727 - Changed title, "Superintelligence" to "Higher than Human Level"
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ198 | |
2 | Ṁ56 | |
3 | Ṁ8 | |
4 | Ṁ0 |