🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher Than Human Level at Answering Multiple Choice, Grounded Situations (EO 2024)? | Manifold

🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher Than Human Level at Answering Multiple Choice, Grounded Situations (EO 2024)?

5

110Ṁ98

Jan 1

22%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is the 2024 version of the linked market. I will fill in details later.

I may use an updated metric if the above metric is stale. I aim to get the details to this market completed by end of January 2024.

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-any-ai-effectively-achieve-sup

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Related questions

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

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Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

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