🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher Than Human Level at Answering Multiple Choice, Grounded Situations (EO 2024)? | Manifold

🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher Than Human Level at Answering Multiple Choice, Grounded Situations (EO 2024)?

5

110Ṁ98

Jan 1

22%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is the 2024 version of the linked market. I will fill in details later.

I may use an updated metric if the above metric is stale. I aim to get the details to this market completed by end of January 2024.

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-any-ai-effectively-achieve-sup

Technical AI Timelines

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025?

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?

Will a dog be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999?

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Related questions

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

Will Quora questions be auto-answered by a more sophisticated bot (at level of GPT3.5 or higher) by EOY 2025?

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?

Will a dog be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999?

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy