Background Information

Here's the Manifold Brier Score:

https://manifold.markets/calibration ... currently it's at 0.17

Metaculus general community Brier Score was calculated here https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zeL52MFB2Pkq9Kdme/exploring-metaculus-community-predictions: and was at 0.126

So that being said, based upon purely the brier score, (Manifold Mana):(Metaculus Points) Exchange Rate would be (Metaculus Score)/(Manifold Score) = 0.126/0.17 = 0.741

This could be accepted as the starting exchange rate based upon the ratio of community Brier Scores for this market.

However, as with any exchange rate, there may be a wide variety of unknown market forces affecting the said rate. For the purposes of this market, we can let it self resolve based upon how people buy the rate.

Considerations for Pricing

• Keep in mind, a market rate of 1 would imply that Manifold has an equal exchange rate to Metaculus. If this market is bid up to 100% at the time of market close, it will resolve as, "YES" which could imply that Manifold Mana is equally as valuable as or more valuable than Metaculus points.

• A market rate of < 0.741 would imply that there is more value to Metaculus Points with respect to Manifold Mana than just what the Brier Score ratios imply. There is some other kind of, "special magic," going on, or that there is some kind of, "special unknown shit," dragging Manifold Mana down.

Resolution

This market will resolve as, "YES" if the final market rate is 100, otherwise it resolves to the percentage at close.