Inspired by:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.00002.pdf

Lots of markets on Manifold question either A) When a particular form of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is going to be achieved or B) Metrics measuring against segments of HLI (Human Level Intelligence).

Whereas:

AI simply does not have the means to collect such data in the same way humans can.

...and other various contextual shortcomings, data ingestion, contextual comprehension, generalized experiences, previous events predicting future events, drawing connections between different domains, etc.

At close, this market resolves YES if HLI Metrics are shown to be a Red Herring due to the above shortcomings being shown to be overwhelming barriers to achieving ANY particular form of AGI discussed, otherwise resolves NO.