Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if there is a significant, widely reported military or geopolitical event involving Iran that triggers a consensus reaction of immediate alarm or escalation, as determined by the market creator based on objective news reporting. If no such event occurs by 11:59 PM ET on April 7, 2026, the market resolves to "NO".

"Woah" events are defined as (but not limited to):

• A direct, large-scale military strike between Iran and a major power (e.g., USA, Israel).

• A major, unexpected attack on critical infrastructure (e.g., oil production facilities, nuclear sites).

• The initiation of a significant, new conventional war front.

Resolution will be based on reports from major, reputable news outlets such as Reuters (reuters.com), The Associated Press (apnews.com), or BBC News (bbc.com). Subjective interpretations that do not align with widespread credible reporting will not trigger a "YES" resolution.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if a major, widely reported military or geopolitical event involving Iran occurs between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on April 7, 2026, that is broadly characterized by major international news outlets as an unexpected, significant escalation.

"Woah" events are defined as:

• A direct, large-scale military strike between Iran and a major power (e.g., USA, Israel).

• A major, unexpected attack on or by Iran involving critical infrastructure, such as significant oil production facilities or nuclear sites.

• The initiation of a significant, new conventional war front.

Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major, reputable news outlets, including Reuters, The Associated Press, or BBC News. If no such event occurs by 11:59 PM ET on April 7, 2026, the market resolves to "NO". Events that are predictable, routine military maneuvers, or minor skirmishes will resolve to "NO".

• Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tweets and statements alone do not count — resolution requires real actions/events, not just social media posts or verbal threats.

• Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A complete end to hostilities through a ceasefire would count as a 'Woah' event and resolve YES.

• Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A temporary ceasefire subject to theoretical agreement by Iran does not qualify as a 'Woah' event and will not resolve YES. Only a complete end to hostilities through a ceasefire would count.