@traders check out the august market here!

We're all gonna 🫠💀

From the NOAA report you cite as your deciding source:
"The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in July was 75.7°F, 2.1°F above average, ranking 11th warmest in the 130-year record."
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202407

How does this resolve to YES ?

Because this question says it is global
>"NOAA global monthly report"
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407
and that says warmest at 1.21C

"July 2024

July 2024 was the warmest July on record for the globe in NOAA's 175-year record. The July global surface temperature was 1.21°C (2.18°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F). This is 0.03°C (0.05°F) warmer than the previous July record set last year, and the 14th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures."

Ah. OK. Thank you for clarifying.

I don’t understand this resolution. Based on the resolution source:

• The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in July was 75.7°F, 2.1°F above average, ranking 11th warmest in the 130-year record.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202407

Oh I misread this as US, not global. But I don’t see that this report. @PaperBoy where is it?

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407

lol thanks and glad I’m not the only one who confidently effed that up!

NOAA is out, 1.21

(And 0.03 degrees higher than July 2023!)

The NASA data showed a mere 0.02 degrees higher than July 2023.

However, this market does not resolve according to NASA.

@traders Monday is the day!

Think maybe this discrepancy is because someone thinks it'll be yes for NASA but no for NOAA? (Poly is NASA, Kalshi is NOAA)

It is possible, but NASA and NOAA are much more similar using a lot of the same land stations whereas ERA5 is satellite.

The most accurate measurements are taken by arthritis. Mine said NO.

Ech, seems pretty cold out to me.

Lotta momentum for yes! Should get an answer in a week or two

@ChristopherRandles

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/uncertainty/

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/uncertainty/v1.2.1/totalCI_ERA.csv

The uncertainty is about 0.05 C in the gistemp data itself for the last 50 years (95% CI).

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.pdf

I bring this up again because someone posted in the poly market that we should be skeptical of the science if gistemp for July shows a record breaking temp where as ERA5 daily reanalysis suggests it’s not… But if the global temp anomaly for the ERA5 reanalysis is 1.19 (which is not far from what I get) than its reasonable since that 0.05 can flip easily either way.

Yes I agree there is a non negligible chance perhaps even approaching 50% if ERA5 is close to 1.19.

Question really is why is it 20% here and was recently 85% and still 67% on my market https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-july-202

I now have a positive position of 662 yes here and 662 no on my market.

Why is Muga Sofer holding this down at 20% here while on my market majorj and aenews pushed up to 85%?

I can’t comment or bet in your market… manifold is borked now for multi I feel like….

strange I bet 21 mins ago and commented there with a test post seconds ago

https://polymarket.com/event/2024-july-hottest-on-record?tid=1722879467257

Poly at 66% now … this is weird

weird, or wrong

Nuts…. Unless insider trading lol

I wasn't aware of your market, I've bid it down.

Possible I'm going to lose my shirt if something crazy is going on, but nobody on Polymarket seems to have a clue what's happening either.

El Nino weather ending means it is less likely that July was another record-breaker.

Yeah, I see two options for those crazy polymarket bets: 1) some actual NASA insiders who did some early calculations and are looking to triple their annual salaries or 2) conspiracy theorists with money who believe that the Global World Order or whatever will cook the books to keep the record going. Any other ideas?

Any other ideas?

Not insider trading, as in some enthusiast doing calculations with publicly available temperature data for a few thousand stations?

Because NOAA is different from GISTEMP, that's pretty much it.

Wow, OK then! lol