https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/climate/hottest-summer-record-copernicus/index.html

Does anyone know how these markets - both this one and the one on polymarket (if I may dare ask here) - resolve in the case of a tie for hottest August ever? I'd assume resolve NO, but not 100% clear to me.

@Judd Hmm good point. I never made that clear. To me when you tie a record you still become the “record holder” (to be referenced when referring to the record). In that sense I would resolve yes in case of a tie

@PaperBoy "Hottest" (in the market title) is singular though in my book... I have no mana in this market by the way, so no conflict of interest.

It doesn't change the probabilities too much either way at this late stage though..

Tie:

No-tie:

@parhizj Fair enough. Two votes for no is enough for me. A tie will resolve no.

@PaperBoy Updated the description

@Judd A tie resolves N on Polymarket

Wow, I didn't think "tie" was even worth talking about much, but... https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-august-2024

(Not the data source this market is based on, tends come in a little lower than NOAA apparently, so I'm quite likely to lose my mana for this month.)

@equinoxhq That's like a 131 anomaly for ERA5. A tie means almost no chance that it fails to break record, because the differential that existed last year between ERA5 and GISS/NOAA (131 vs. 119 in GISS e.g.) is gone. We expect the anomaly to be fairly close this time around. And of course, now we have more data that affirms that.

@aenews But NOAA was much higher than GISTEMP, hence the difference in odds there

@traders 4 days until the month ends! Will the Yes streak continue for August??

Respect to the people hedging by selling some some NO at the 11th hour...

Polymarket is up to (an excessive?) 94%. I don't have a tight model for August sadly but it seems a bit high... (2 sigma is super wide for me but 85-90% seems reasonable). Edit: I should say I also get 94% for a middle value but pragmatically with the uncertainty it seems like its not worth betting it up so high....

@parhizj If you want ill place a limit order ~4% below poly at basically any time and you can get access to some of the poly liquidity

@Bayesian Put it at 90% then and I'll sell my measly 764 shares lol

placed at 89, im a bit concerned since the sources arent the same and idk about this topic and aenews is betting… hmmmmm

@Bayesian Thanks! Below is GISTEMP and NOAA below from June to September for 2016, 2023, 2024 if I didn't paste wrongly.

What is a bit unusual is the trend differences for the anomalies between gistemp and NOAA for these record breaking years... for instance if you look at the trend for NOAA for 2023 those months its a significant increase from 1.03 to 1.11 but for gistemp, their analysis skyrockets for September 2023 from 1.08 to 1.48 in 4 months... Something different happens between the groups for 2016 where NOAA anomaly gradually drops across these months (-0.07C ) and gistemp peaks in August, an anomaly 0.2 C higher than July. Their methodologies are different (especially in terms of infilling missing data points) with the uncertainty for gistemp supposed to be about 0.05C for recent decades. I haven't seen a quantification for NOAA's uncertainty but either it is larger than gistemp or these are explained away by being a couple of those 5% cases or by apples/oranges methodological differences ...

80 84 102 90

108 119 119 148

125 121 **** ****

"201606":"1.14","201607":"1.10","201608":"1.09","201609":"1.07"

"202306":"1.03","202307":"1.05","202308":"1.07","202309":"1.11"

"202406":"1.29","202407":"1.28"

hmmmmmmm I now regret my bets (not too badly ig) but thanks for the info!