I'm not sure if this is applicable, but does this data support a higher YES probability?

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World recorded hottest day on July 21, monitor says

https://ground.news/article/world-recorded-hottest-day-on-july-21-monitor-says_8f6fba?utm_source=mobile-app&utm_medium=newsroom-share 

Small YES bet after the last two days of ERA5-GEFS(adjusted) error being in the 0.3 C range (usually RMSE of ~0.05 C), resulting in lower confidence in what the rest of the month temperatures holds. If it is not a one-off error, and the error for the rest of the month is +0.1-0.2, will have to re-evaluate:

Assuming Copernicus ERA5 keeps between 0 to +0.1 C above GEFS, ~ 25-40% seems reasonable at the moment..

Not sure if the market as low as 20% is reasonable but my lower,upper probabilities have been increasing as well as the spread, not decreasing, with only a quarter of the month left to go.

Keeps setting records after record... 17% looks to low, increasing bet....

Hansen appears to suggest this market is overconfident:

https://mailchi.mp/caa/reflections-on-time-scales-and-butterflies

"Nevertheless, we suggest caution in predictions about July and August for Fig. 1. Almost a dead-heat (sorry, no pun intended) with the 2023 July and August records is possible, even likely."

I put up a 5k limit order at 40% for any takers on Hansen's advice.

Bettors in this market may be interested in a bet on the daily (reanalysis) global temperature record for today.

@MugaSofer you seem quite certain about this. Care to enlighten us?

@Lemming I wouldn't say certain, but I think this is overvalued, yes.

Global temperatures have been skating just barely above the previous record the past couple of months, and last month's NOAA report on the topic noted

>These temperatures occurred as the current El Niño episode nears its end. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 weakened further in March, and according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a transition from El Niño to ENSO–neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with odds of La Niña developing by June–August 2024 (60% chance).