Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month
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From the NOAA report you cite as your deciding source:
"The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in July was 75.7°F, 2.1°F above average, ranking 11th warmest in the 130-year record."
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202407
How does this resolve to YES ?
Because this question says it is global
>"NOAA global monthly report"
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407
and that says warmest at 1.21C
"July 2024
July 2024 was the warmest July on record for the globe in NOAA's 175-year record. The July global surface temperature was 1.21°C (2.18°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F). This is 0.03°C (0.05°F) warmer than the previous July record set last year, and the 14th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures."
I don’t understand this resolution. Based on the resolution source:
The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in July was 75.7°F, 2.1°F above average, ranking 11th warmest in the 130-year record.
The NASA data showed a mere 0.02 degrees higher than July 2023.
However, this market does not resolve according to NASA.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/uncertainty/
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/uncertainty/v1.2.1/totalCI_ERA.csv
The uncertainty is about 0.05 C in the gistemp data itself for the last 50 years (95% CI).
I bring this up again because someone posted in the poly market that we should be skeptical of the science if gistemp for July shows a record breaking temp where as ERA5 daily reanalysis suggests it’s not… But if the global temp anomaly for the ERA5 reanalysis is 1.19 (which is not far from what I get) than its reasonable since that 0.05 can flip easily either way.
Yes I agree there is a non negligible chance perhaps even approaching 50% if ERA5 is close to 1.19.
Question really is why is it 20% here and was recently 85% and still 67% on my market https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-july-202
I now have a positive position of 662 yes here and 662 no on my market.
Why is Muga Sofer holding this down at 20% here while on my market majorj and aenews pushed up to 85%?
strange I bet 21 mins ago and commented there with a test post seconds ago
https://polymarket.com/event/2024-july-hottest-on-record?tid=1722879467257
Poly at 66% now … this is weird
Nuts…. Unless insider trading lol
Yeah, I see two options for those crazy polymarket bets: 1) some actual NASA insiders who did some early calculations and are looking to triple their annual salaries or 2) conspiracy theorists with money who believe that the Global World Order or whatever will cook the books to keep the record going. Any other ideas?