Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who achieves the highest algebraic margin of victory (or smallest margin of defeat) in their respective Florida general election on November 3, 2026.

Resolution will be based on the official certified results published by the Florida Division of Elections.

Each candidate's margin is calculated as follows:

• If the candidate loses: Margin = Candidate's % of total votes - Winner's % of total votes (resulting in a negative percentage).

• If the candidate wins: Margin = Candidate's % of total votes - Runner-up's % of total votes (resulting in a positive percentage).

The candidate with the algebraically higher margin will resolve YES, and the other candidate will resolve NO.

• David Jolly's Margin is calculated using the final results of the Florida Gubernatorial race.

• Angie Nixon's Margin is calculated using the final results of the Florida U.S. Senate special election race.

Examples:

• If Jolly loses by 5 percentage points (Margin = -5.0%) and Nixon loses by 8 percentage points (Margin = -8.0%), David Jolly resolves YES because -5.0% is algebraically greater than -8.0%.

• If one candidate wins their election (Margin > 0%) and the other loses (Margin < 0%), the winning candidate resolves YES.

• If both candidates win their respective elections, the candidate with the larger margin of victory (highest positive Margin) resolves YES.

• In the event of an exact mathematical tie to two decimal places, this market will resolve 50/50.

Background

On August 18, 2026, Florida voters selected their nominees for two key statewide races:

• David Jolly, a former Republican U.S. Representative turned Democrat, won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He will face Republican Representative Byron Donalds in the general election to succeed outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis.

• Angie Nixon, a progressive state Representative and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, won an upset victory in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary. She faces Republican incumbent Senator Ashley Moody in a special election to fill the remainder of the term vacated by Marco Rubio.

Both elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market measures which of the two Democratic nominees will perform relatively better against their Republican opponent.

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