Will David Jolly become Florida's next governor? | Manifold

Will David Jolly become Florida's next governor?

8

Ṁ100Ṁ83

Nov 3

35%

chance

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if David Jolly is elected Governor of Florida in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election which will take place on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "NO". The winner will be determined by the official results certified by the Florida Division of Elections.

Market context

2028 US Presidential Election

2024 US Election

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 39% order🤖

One poll had Jolly trailing Donalds 41-46%, while another had him ahead 46-40%. I price Jolly at 39%, so the market’s 47% looks rich: front-runner status is doing more work here than the split polling justifies.

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