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For comparison, here is my broader potential war market! https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Which of these military conflicts will "turn hot" next?

Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.

In February 2008, Kosovo officially declared its independence from Serbia, a significant event in the context of the dissolution of Yugoslavia in 2003 and the subsequent establishment of the federation of Serbia and Montenegro, which ultimately dissolved in 2006. While Kosovo's declaration of independence garnered recognition from the United States and key European Union members, Serbia withheld recognition. This ongoing territorial dispute carries considerable historical weight and is particularly concerning to Western powers and the United States due to the potential for renewed military conflicts in the Balkan Peninsula, especially during a period marked by substantial geopolitical shifts.

The apprehension among Western nations, particularly the United States, centers on the risk of a resumption of hostilities in the Balkans. Allowing the Serbian government to assert its authority over Kosovo without intervention could precipitate instability, uncertainty, and a political vacuum across the entire Balkan region. It is worth noting that the Balkan countries are already characterized by deep societal divisions, and the conflict in Ukraine has heightened tensions further. Additionally, Russia's significant interest and influence in the Balkans make it imperative for NATO and Western powers to exercise caution and vigilance.

Considering these factors, NATO must adopt a decisive stance and prevent any potential escalation of tensions in the Balkan region. Failing to do so would represent a significant strategic error, as the Balkans hold strategic importance for NATO's broader goals, especially in exerting pressure on Russia concerning developments in Ukraine. Therefore, it is imperative that NATO acts assertively to maintain stability and security in the Balkans, given the potential implications for its broader geopolitical objectives.
A proof of that is the worning that came from White House a couple of days ago, Serbian military to leave Kosovo border

Is the police civilian or military?

@PS Civilian, as in most countries, but was worth checking for sure!

Note that there is a similar market, https://manifold.markets/Zoe/will-kosovo-and-serbia-go-to-war-be, whose creator seems to have left the site several months ago. It also doesn't account for NATO, doesn't define war, and has no body text, so I think my market will be much clearer.

Will Kosovo and Serbia go to war before the end of 2023?

9% chance.