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MANIFOLD
Will the IDF blow up any more refugee camps before the end of 2023? [Ṁ300 Pool]
9
Ṁ320Ṁ2.4k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/31/dozens-killed-after-israeli-airstrikes-on-gaza-refugee-camp

As the Jabalia camp has already been bombed multiple times. If it is bombed again, or if any other refugee camp in Gaza or the West Bank is hit by IDF (or IAF, etc.) ordnance of any kind resulting in death, this will resolve Yes. Note that this question is not about the claimed motive for the strike. If they were "aiming for" the tunnels or a specific Hamas target, and hit a refugee camp in the process, this will resolve Yes.

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predictedYES

Okay, the Bereij camp was ambiguous with timing, but the Al-Maghazi one happened last night and as of this morning looks like it could only have come from an IAF-scale airstrike. If we don't get denial from the IDF very soon, I'll be resolving Yes today.

I'm trying to get better timing information about the bombing of the Bureij refugee camp. It may have happened before the question was made, but the earliest stories I can find were an hour after this question was made. This question may resolve Yes very shortly, or I might go to sleep and look for more info tomorrow.

Where will the terrorists live? Will they all live in the city or in tunnels? My guess is that at least some of them will live in the refugee camps alongside the refugees and the IDF will target them. This would happen even if there actually are no terrorists in the camps, but IDF gets false info that they are.

@DanielParker I agree it's a likely Yes! Others might think it's something that will be avoided or no longer necessary as the ground invasion expands and the PR hits accumulate. Of course, I don't expect the IDF to suddenly realize that this is the same as Hamas's logic in attacking civilians in a country that has mandatory military service.