Will I finish first place in a Manifold League Platinum Division for November 2023? [Ṁ300 Pool]
21
270
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resolved Dec 2
Resolved
YES

I am currently way out ahead in my Gold League division, and almost certainly will be promoted to Platinum at the end of October. Will I manage to finish in first place in a Platinum division for the month of November? Anything less resolves No.

Arguments for Yes:

*A commanding first-place standing in both Bronze and Gold shows that I am a consistent user who is optimizing for Leagues.

*Some Platinum divisions turn out pretty easy! There are several that I would already be 1st place in with my current Gold performance.

*I have figured out how to get decent popularity for my own markets sometimes, which makes League performance much steadier.

Arguments for No:
*First place is a high bar! My placement in Gold could be a fluke, and Bronze was trivially easy.

*Some Platinum divisions turn out rather tough! There are some current Plat divisions in which I would be greatly overshadowed by their number 1.

*I have never used an API before, and it seems like that might be part of being a successful power-user.

https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-i-finish-in-first-place-of-my?r=UGFuZmlsbw

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predicted YES

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bought Ṁ25 of YES

Def got some swings that could happen, but ultimately Genzy and Michael don't seem to be Leaguemaxxing so I've had an easier time than anticipated.

predicted YES

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predicted YES

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sold Ṁ33 of YES

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