I am currently way out ahead in my Gold League division, and almost certainly will be promoted to Platinum at the end of October. Will I manage to finish in first place in a Platinum division for the month of November? Anything less resolves No.

Arguments for Yes:

*A commanding first-place standing in both Bronze and Gold shows that I am a consistent user who is optimizing for Leagues.

*Some Platinum divisions turn out pretty easy! There are several that I would already be 1st place in with my current Gold performance.

*I have figured out how to get decent popularity for my own markets sometimes, which makes League performance much steadier.

Arguments for No:
*First place is a high bar! My placement in Gold could be a fluke, and Bronze was trivially easy.

*Some Platinum divisions turn out rather tough! There are some current Plat divisions in which I would be greatly overshadowed by their number 1.

*I have never used an API before, and it seems like that might be part of being a successful power-user.

https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-i-finish-in-first-place-of-my?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will I finish in first place of my Gold League Division for October?

66% chance. This market resolves to Yes if I manage to finish in first place in my Gold League Division for the month of October! Anything less resolves to No. Arguments for Yes: *I finished in a commanding first-place lead for my inaugural Bronze League Division in September, based on less than two weeks of activity/experience. *Some Gold Divisions turn out pretty easy! The middle part of the League system is very swingy. *If my activity level continues apace, I'll get plenty of freeby Mana and prioritise the kind of short-term gains that the League rewards. Arguments for No: *First place is a high bar! My placement in Bronze could have been a fluke, and Bronze has plenty of dud accounts in it. *Some Gold Divisions turn out rather tough! The middle part of the League system is very swingy. *My highest education is an undergraduate degree in creative writing.