Will I finish in first place of my Gold League Division for October?

Basic

Ṁ2530

resolved Nov 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market resolves to Yes if I manage to finish in first place in my Gold League Division for the month of October! Anything less resolves to No.

Arguments for Yes:

*I finished in a commanding first-place lead for my inaugural Bronze League Division in September, based on less than two weeks of activity/experience.

*Some Gold Divisions turn out pretty easy! The middle part of the League system is very swingy.

*If my activity level continues apace, I'll get plenty of freeby Mana and prioritise the kind of short-term gains that the League rewards.

Arguments for No:
*First place is a high bar! My placement in Bronze could have been a fluke, and Bronze has plenty of dud accounts in it.

*Some Gold Divisions turn out rather tough! The middle part of the League system is very swingy.

*My highest education is an undergraduate degree in creative writing.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Personal Goals

#Manifold Leagues

Get

1,000

and

3.00

6 Comments

11 Holders

77 Trades

Sort by:

predictedYES

https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-i-finish-first-place-in-a-mani?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will I finish first place in a Manifold League Platinum Division for November 2023?

35% chance. I am currently way out ahead in my Gold League division, and almost certainly will be promoted to Platinum at the end of October. Will I manage to finish in first place in a Platinum division for the month of November? Anything less resolves No. Arguments for Yes: *A commanding first-place standing in both Bronze and Gold shows that I am a consistent user who is optimizing for Leagues. *Some Platinum divisions turn out pretty easy! There are several that I would already be 1st place in with my current Gold performance. *I have figured out how to get decent popularity for my own markets sometimes, which makes League performance much steadier. Arguments for No: *First place is a high bar! My placement in Gold could be a fluke, and Bronze was trivially easy. *Some Platinum divisions turn out rather tough! There are some current Plat divisions in which I would be greatly overshadowed by their number 1. *I have never used an API before, and it seems like that might be part of being a successful power-user. https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-i-finish-in-first-place-of-my?r=UGFuZmlsbw [link preview]

Nvm I'm killing it again

predictedYES

This is a great time to short me! Things have really fallen apart during the race for Squeaker of the Mouse.

predictedYES

Got some contenders in the division, but this website is a bit more engaging than Cookie Clicker so far, so I’m staying active!

This isn't a self-referring market

predictedYES

@bohaska They should add mouseover tooltips to the tags!

Related questions

Related questions