Any number of these states can resolve Yes at any time between now and the end of 2040. All remaining will resolve No at that time. If recognition is granted and then later withdrawn, the Yes resolution will remain.
In the last few years, multiple nations have normalized relations with Israel, such as Morocco, UAE, and Kosovo. Will this trend pick up again, or will the recent destruction in Palestine cause a long diplomatic winter?
If any states break preexisting relations with Israel, they can be added by me. If recognition is ambiguous, each entry will resolve based on the removal of a state from the color-coded categories on this Wikipedia list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country
How mad would people be if I moved the end date to 2040? What about 2030? Too much?
Conditional on restoring some rights to Palestinians. Governed by a mostly democratic presidential republic.
Repeatedly has stated for decades that it will never recognize Israel. Fought against Israel on numerous occasions since 1948. Governed by unstable parliamentary republic with un-democratic elections.
Conditional on independent Palestine. Governed by a relatively stable monarchic dictatorship. Has been under martial law since the 60s.
Conditional on independent Palestine, though indications otherwise. Relations have been steadily improving over time.
Conditional on independent Palestine. Has become increasingly hostile over last couple of decades.
@0482 The confidence in this despite recent setbacks is the most interesting part of the market so far, and I don't think I disagree.
@PlainBG Many people just throw in 5 Mana if they don't expect a market to move for a long time, BUT since this has so many options and the subject is so volatile, it could suddenly be really active for one or two specific countries just based on shifts in geopolitics. Keep in mind, if North Korea recognizes Israel tomorrow on a whim, that specific option resolves Yes tomorrow (unlike in linked outcome markets).