Will Ramzan Kadyrov still be head of Chechnya on Jan 1, 2024?
33
closes Jan 1
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ14 +46%
New probability
69% +0.5%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ100 of NO
I don't see any rational reason why this market should be at 50%, what is the survival rate 6 months after entering a critical condition?
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics#:~:text=Overall%2C%20mortality%20rates%20in%20patients,%2C%20comorbidities%2C%20and%20illness%20severity.
Google states 10-29%. Perhaps it's a lot higher, but 50% is a suspicious number
3 replies

@ElliotDavies At the moment, I haven't seen any actual evidence he's in a critical condition. I know about the rumors, but there was no named or credible source for them yet.

@ElliotDavies Not sure. The "Kadyrov alive" markets are at 57% at the moment:
Perhaps the 15% difference to this market's 42% is about him being alive but too sick to rule?
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