Will Russia run out of money?

Question

This market resolves yes if:

Russia officialy defaults on its debt, whether internal or external. Refusing to pay debts to specific actors doesn't count if Russia believably claims it's for political rather than financial reasons (e.g. debts to "unfriendly" countries). UPD: It also doesn't count if Russia cannot pay a debt for technical reasons, despite having the money.

Russia does not officialy default, but is unable to pay a variety of significantly different parties. For example, missing or delayed payments to employees of specific state branches/in specific regions don't count; it has to be widespread.

Russia is forced to end the war against Ukraine (e.g. by suing for peace) because it cannot afford to continue for financial reasons.

The market resolves no on January 1st 2030, or if the war ends before that, without a positive resolution.

Please note that cases 2 and especially 3 are quite subjective. I am not an expert on state finances and will rely on the consensus of Western experts/media reports. Also, I will participate in the market, since the reason to create it was a discussion with @BTE.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (26 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).