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Russia’s MOD publishes the first footage of Ukraine invasion commander Valery Gerasimov in weeks, apparently to dispel widespread rumors he’d been dismissed

Related market:

The milblogger notably claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) commander and rumored deputy theater commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky assumed responsibilities as overall theater commander in Ukraine from Chief of the General Staff and current overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov on an unspecified date, but likely after the rebellion. The milblogger emphasized that Gerasimov will retain his post as Chief of the General Staff but will no longer have responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine.

Per https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2023

Institute for the Study of War

Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggests that involved parties may still be negotiating the specifics of the agreement. Independent Belarusian monitoring g

I would be strongly in favor of waiting a little while after June 30th for more information to come out regarding this and whether this report about Gerasmiov is true (though market description is a little unclear of whether the consensus must be met before July 1st, or merely agree that he was removed prior to July 1st)

The Kremlin may attempt to placate disdain for the MoD establishment by reducing Gerasimov’s role in operations in Ukraine, although he is highly likely to maintain, at least nominally, the position of overall theater commander and his long-term role as Chief of the General Staff.

Of course, if I kept reading the update before posting, I would’ve seen this,,, so it seems unlikely that this will count for NO resolution

Edit: I do, however, currently stand by the request for market resolution to be slightly delayed for media consensus to form

@JoshuaB Full text of the June 29th update from ISW regarding Gerasimov

Western observers continue to speculate about the whereabouts of Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov following Wagner’s rebellion, although his lack of public appearance is not necessarily indicative of his current official standing within the Russian military leadership.[23] Gerasimov has previously not appeared in public for long periods of time, particularly between the summer of 2022 and his reemergence in the winter of 2023 in the weeks leading up to his appointment to overall theater commander.[24] These stretches of absence prompted speculations that the Kremlin either had replaced him or intended to replace him as Chief of the General Staff.[25] The Kremlin and the Russian MoD carefully responded to these previous bouts of speculation by routinely affirming Gerasimov’s role as Chief of the General Staff, although they have yet to respond to the most recent round of speculation fueled by Wagner’s armed rebellion.[26] ISW recently assessed that the Kremlin will likely attempt to balance a desire to mitigate widespread disdain for MoD establishment figures like Gerasimov that fueled Wagner’s rebellion with trying to disempower those who may have sympathized with the rebellion.[27] Russian speculations that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky recently assumed Gerasimov’s responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine would be in line with this effort, although there continues to be no confirmation that such a transfer of responsibilities has occurred.[28] It is possible that Putin has yet to decide how to fully respond to Wagner’s rebellion, including decisions on a potential overhaul of the Russian military’s command cadre or changes in whom among the military leadership Putin favors. Until the Kremlin’s response to the rebellion becomes clearer Gerasimov’s public absence alone is not an indicator of his position within the Russian military leadership. ISW has previously observed that Gerasimov’s involvement, or lack thereof, in public meetings with Putin indicated the likely degree of favor that Gerasimov has enjoyed with Putin during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine but not his retention or loss of his formal position.[29]

@JoshuaB You're right, the closing date makes this ambivalent. I'll certainly wait a while before resolving the market; I'd say 14 days at most (unless there already is a clear indication that Gersaimov was/wasn't at the helm by today).

@PS Wouldn't it be reasonable to close at the original date/time and just wait until resolved?

@42irrationalist I think it's more usual to leave the market open until resolution. What would be the advantages of closing it?

@PS I feel like the opposite is more usually?

@jack, I feel like it's ok to tag you as the market creator and ask for advice, and I think one of your recent markets closed one day before resolution. What's your advice for markets like this one where it's best to wait for a while? Also, when you need to wait for a few more days after the target date, is it more customary to close on the target date and resolve later or move the closing date in the future?

@JoshuaB Nothing in today’s update about Gerasimov

@42irrationalist While we're waiting for @jack to weigh in - the reason I see for keeping the market open is that people can continue trading, so that we still get market movements when new information appears, even if it's not conclusive. It works the same way that markets about past events do. What would be the argument against keeping it open?

@PS TBH, after thinking for a bit I am no longer sure. The only argument I have: "it just feels weird, because the market is no longer about predicting future events and people who make extra profit are not necessarily forecasters".

@42irrationalist I'd argue there is not much functional difference between predicting the future and predicting the past, where lies the missing puzzle piece has little impact on the solution

@JoshuaB ISW reiterating in the July 7th update that they do not believe Gerasimov will be (which I’m taking to also include has been) removed.

ISW cannot independently confirm rumors of Shoigu’s replacement and has, in fact, previously assessed that it is unlikely that Putin will replace Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov soon, and the Russian MoD appears to be actively interested in presenting Shoigu as an effective defense minister and posted footage of Shoigu visiting Russian contract servicemen at Southern Military District (SMD) training grounds on July 8.