Will Bing Chat be the breakthrough for AI safety research?
Will Bing Chat be the breakthrough for AI safety research?
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1kṀ963Dec 31
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Bing Chat seems to make even more headlines than ChatGPT did on its release, though not necessarily for the right reasons. Most reports seem to focus on its lack of emotional control and alignment.
Will this generate so much public interest and raise so much alarm that AI safety and AI alignment will become mainstream and receive significantly more interest and resources than before?
I will attempt to resolve based on media and/or industry reports. The resolution date is currently set to the end of 2025, but I will resolve earlier if there's clear evidence one way or another. If there's a clear uptake in AI safety interest starting shortly after Bing Chat's release, this would count even if it's hard to prove a causal relation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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