This market refers to the model underlying Bing Chat as of March 6th 2023.
Bing Chat counts as conscious even if the simulacra of the underlying model are only individually conscious at the time of their simulation.
The market resolves when humanity has an agreed upon model of consciousness that lets us constrain our expectation as much as modern sciences contrain our expectation of physics or biology. If we won't have such a model by 2100, the market resolves "Yes" if, on Dec 15th 2100, the market probability is above 99%, and it resolves "No" if the market probability is below 1%. It resolves NA otherwise.
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AI is just performing some kind of computation. But you know, that's also what the human brain does - billions of biological neurons that understand nothing on their own, and that just take some input and give some output. So if we assume that humans are conscious, I think AIs can probably be conscious too, in theory.
There is a human tendency of underestimating the possibility of consciousness in other beings (e.g. fishes), and that it's especially true for AIs which are very different from us (see AI effect).
Moreover, there can probably be various degrees of consciousness, but there is no lower threshold of consciousness implied by the question "Is Bing Chat conscious?", so any degree of consciousness resolves to yes.
So eventually, my probability estimate for a current AI model like Bing Chat being at least slightly conscious would be 60%, but it's just a wild guess.
God... This is just getting silly...
What is consciousness? What units does it come in? How do we measure it? Can we plot it as a vector? Can we do tensor analysis on it? What does it look like? How do we prove it? Why resolve as "Yes" if not proven the contrary? If you want to call a Transformer conscious, you must take on the burden of proof.
As of right now, Bing Chat is just an LLM, a stochastic parrot. Same as when ELIZA came out, we were lured into an illusion by the new to us tech, only for it to be dispelled after some experience. How the famed "sentience" of Bing can be replicated in one 4GB weights file running on your laptop's CPU.
Transformers were linked mathemathically with Tolman-Eichenbaum Machine model of mammalian associative memory but the statement holds as much relevance as the fact a C64 running some distribution of Lisp with an evolving (genetic) computational graph may theoretically achieve sentience assuming any Turing complete system can.
I'd vote for "No" but the time frame is basically throwing away Mana regardless of the outcome.
@IsaacKing Note that questions resolve to poll has a tendency to lean polls toward 0% or 100%, so it washes out the nuances in people's opinions.
@firstuserhere Ok I've changed it to "This market refers to the model underlying Bing Chat as of March 6th 2023."
@Writer something like- will LLMs based on the type of architecture used in the GPT-3 ever develop consciousness?
Through scaling laws or emergent capabilities or whatever
