Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Manifold have a day over 1000 engaged users in Aug?
45
Ṁ870Ṁ47k
resolved Aug 12
Resolved
YES

https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Market context
Manifold
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ518
2Ṁ129
3Ṁ59
4Ṁ59
5Ṁ49
Sort by:
predictedYES

@PC Should resolve now: Aug 11 - 1060

predictedNO

@parhizj at this rate it's gonna hit 2k mark in the next 7 days

predictedYES

@nobody My error range is too large for the work I've done so far: 1200-2100

predictedNO

@parhizj yeah I'm screwed

predictedYES

@nobody I'm confused as well about how high it will go. DM me if you want any help

predictedYES

@PC Created more markets

predictedYES

@nobody @PC

I did more analysis with a larger sample (500 superconductor boom users) but it didn't validate well against todays and yesterdays engagement results. Looks like at least I'm missing something in my calculation, or underestimating an increase in the engagement from the (pre-superconductor boom) base during the superconducting boom period, as I would expect it to be 5% not 3% for yesterday.

That the error is large enough and confusing enough is sufficient for me to pull out of all these markets.

2023-07-22T00:00:00-08:00 to 2023-08-12T00:00:00-08:00:
  % Superconductor sample Users Engaged (3 weeks): 3.0 %
  Engagement estimate (3 weeks):  910