Can be planets, moons, novel space stations at Langrage points
Resolves to:
First non-earth location that has humans living on it for 1+ years with an intention of living there long-term
@Mqrius Ah right, intention of living there long term. How long term? Sounds like it's kinda far off.
@BlackbirdImmersive Yes I thought about this as a resolution criteria. I created this market instead https://manifold.markets/PC/what-nonearth-surface-will-we-have
@AndrewG there's not nearly as much water on the moon as mars, it doesn't have an atmosphere (which is incredibly useful for colonization purposes), and from a deltaV perspective it's only a little cheaper.
There's a nice Space Business podcast episode featuring Casey Handmer where he discusses the challenges of the moon (expensive electricity, unfriendly surface, low utility upside) vs Mars. It's very hard to return on demand from Mars, but one could build a nice base there, and it's not terrible if you're leaving the rockets there.