Where will humans first colonize in our solar system?
➕
Plus
32
Ṁ2749
2303
0.1%
Other
67%
Moon
33%
Mars
0.4%
Venus
0%
Titan
0%
Europa
0%
A Langrage Point
0%
Yes. It might even be a ghost town (or colony) by then.

Can be planets, moons, novel space stations at Langrage points

Resolves to:

  • First non-earth location that has humans living on it for 1+ years with an intention of living there long-term

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Is it safe to assume the answer is a typo for this? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_point

I hate spending mana on these because they'll never resolve, but I can't just leave what is clearly the wrong answer in the lead. 🤣

I'm assuming earth orbit and moon orbit don't count.

Does it have to be the same person living somewhere for a year?

@Mqrius Ah right, intention of living there long term. How long term? Sounds like it's kinda far off.

@Mqrius Good question. With no intention to come back?

I think if there's no intention to have children there it's just a base, not colonisation.

@BlackbirdImmersive Yes I thought about this as a resolution criteria. I created this market instead https://manifold.markets/PC/what-nonearth-surface-will-we-have

I mean, it's gotta be the moon. It's just so much closer than anything else.

@AndrewG there's not nearly as much water on the moon as mars, it doesn't have an atmosphere (which is incredibly useful for colonization purposes), and from a deltaV perspective it's only a little cheaper.

opened a Ṁ25 Other YES at 1.0% order

There's a nice Space Business podcast episode featuring Casey Handmer where he discusses the challenges of the moon (expensive electricity, unfriendly surface, low utility upside) vs Mars. It's very hard to return on demand from Mars, but one could build a nice base there, and it's not terrible if you're leaving the rockets there.

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