Wow markets got pretty mispriced during Manifest, didn't they?

Can we clarify what happens if some insane conspiracist takes charge of NASA and then declares aliens exist despite not providing any evidence as such or something similar? Because I put the odds of that above 5% but not the odds of actual aliens (well below 1%)

@Balasar I'm imagining a scenario where an RFK-type comes in and fires all the actual scientists or something like that.

I wish I understood what's going on with this market....

@FergusArgyll Clearly, the market creator knows something we don't 👽

@BrunoJ I looked at his previous markets, actually very suspicious.

@OwenChen Just in case you are planning to resolve Yes despite nothing happening - this leads to mods having to re-resolve the market, you loosing mana and, potentially, a ban.

Would life seeded from earth count?

@MachiNi No, can't originate from earth.

@OwenChen What about a case where the detected life is related but the origin isn't clear?

One possibility is that life started here but spread elsewhere (e.g. Earth has life, meteor impacts Earth, debris lands on Mars, Mars has living/fossil life) but the opposite could also be true (i.e. Mars seeded Earth).

Another possibility is that we may find life that's remarkably similar to our own but for which its ancestry is unclear. Convergent evolution may result in fossils which LOOK like ancient Earth microbes but without any genetic material to verify that.

Do microbes count?

@Dkknrjidood yes