This is second in my series based on this article. This article talks about a China Surprise. I am not convinced about an invasion of Taiwan by China is 2024, so I am going to focus on the 2nd unpredictable but plausible event that Matthew Burrows says can happen this year.
Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.
A China surprise
BY MATTHEW BURROWS
Mathew Burrows is the program lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub. He was formerly the director of Foresight at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Strategy Initiative and the co-director of the New American Engagement Initiative.
War with China breaks out several months after Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te has been elected in the Taiwan presidential election on Jan. 13 with a bigger margin than expected. This encourages him to declare Taiwan’s independence from China against the advice of the Biden administration but with the backing of a number of congressional Republicans. China mounts a quarantine cutting off trade to the island. This only increases Taiwan’s determination to be independent, and just as the U.S. presidential campaign heats up in October, China starts a military operation. The Biden administration feels it has no option but to mount a military defense of the island. Biden’s strong presidential leadership shifts the momentum away from Trump among independent voters. The reigning assumption is that such a war would be so ruinous economically for China that President Xi Jinping would avoid it. However, in this scenario, he fears that China will lose Taiwan forever and is counting on the Biden administration to be wary of intervening for fear of the possible negative electoral consequences.
An alternative scenario: Under the weight of enormous debt, slow growth and a depressed property market, China suffers a financial crash similar to the 2008 economic crisis in the United States. As happened then, China’s woes aren’t confined to itself or Asia but spread, triggering a global recession. In the U.S., inflation goes away, but with a growing lack of confidence, unemployment starts to creep up just as the electoral campaign gets underway. Biden isn’t responsible, but like other U.S. presidents facing reelection, a poor economy further drags down his popularity.
Message from OP: There may be a subjective element to this, but it has to compare in magnitude to what happened to the US is 2008 with financial panic, government takeovers of private banks/assets/insurance companies; (although they claim it was not done); forced mergers; shotguns wedding of companies.