Update 2023-09-27: don't bet in this market, instead use https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a .

According to this status, @Aella is going to get Lantern Bioworks's magic germs painted on her teeth. Whether she gets any cavities seems like a decent (though noisy) proxy for whether the germs are in fact magic.

On 2026-01-01, I'll ask Aella whether she got a cavity. She answered my DM asking her permission to create this market, so, by induction, I assume she'll answer that one too! (But if she doesn't within a month, I'll resolve the market N/A.)