Will Aella report getting a cavity before 2026-01-01?
#Science#Aella
6
148
Ṁ130
resolved Oct 6
Resolved
N/A

Update 2023-09-27: don't bet in this market, instead use https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a .

According to this status, @Aella is going to get Lantern Bioworks's magic germs painted on her teeth. Whether she gets any cavities seems like a decent (though noisy) proxy for whether the germs are in fact magic.

On 2026-01-01, I'll ask Aella whether she got a cavity. She answered my DM asking her permission to create this market, so, by induction, I assume she'll answer that one too! (But if she doesn't within a month, I'll resolve the market N/A.)

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bought Ṁ2 of YES

I think this market should be higher than Aella's because it resolves yes based on new cavities after application but before full effectiveness.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

arb /Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a

I assume you're going to resolve by asking her at the close date, not rely on her happening to post about it?

bought Ṁ17 of NO

How does this resolve if she doesn't post anything and doesn't answer your DMs?

predicted NO

@WilliamEhlhardt Right, I'll ask her; and if she doesn't respond, I'll resolve N/A. Market description updated.

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