Will bounty hunters tasked with terminating rouge AGIs exist by 2049?
12
1kṀ5812050
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria here are fairly loose—the birth of a profession relatively recognizable as similar to that of the “Blade Runner” in the 2049 film will satisfy here. Does not need to be an embodied AGI that is the runner or the hunter (and the former can of course also be human), but AGI needs to have been widely recognized as “invented” and active before 2049 for this market to be possibly resolved “yes.” (Bug hunting for OpenAI in 2024 does not even remotely count as a “yes.”)
Haven’t seen the movie yet? You’re missing out! Check out the trailer here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
42% chance
Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?
9% chance
Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?
10% chance
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?
89% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2040?
10% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2075?
50% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2035?
10% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030?
4% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least
1 million deaths before 2045?
20% chance