Will Ben Landau-Taylor tell us to evacuate for risk of nuclear war before Apr 1 2022?

23

100Ṁ3061

resolved Apr 1

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Ben Landau-Taylor recently tweeted this: https://twitter.com/benlandautaylor/status/1495908407114702852 His blog post has a sign up form; if you sign up, hell tell you if he has decided to evacuate. This question will resolve YES if Ben sends an email to this list telling us to evacuate, or telling us that he himself evacuated, before Apr 1 2022 00:00 Eastern time. - If a nuclear missile targets a major US city, this will resolve YES regardless of what Ben does - If it turns out that he tried to send this message, but some technological disruption prevents me from receiving it, this will resolve YES. I will wait a bit before resolving the question if it looks like there are major technological disruptions. - If there are other points that need clarification, I'll put them in the comments. Feb 24, 8:08pm: I'm going to try to increase the pool on this question (without distorting the market) by buying some YES and NO...

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I appreciate everyone's trust in me resolving this correctly. See you in 9 hours, and happy 2022Q2!

I guess this is too capital intensive for people to sell it down as time passes? Anyways if you want recent-ish reassuring posts there's https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022 and https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1503450564482510851. I'll also sell the YES side of my ante-upping transaction...

https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1499022955346542595 This isn't Ben but still seems relevant

It worked! Enjoy the bigger pool...

hedging mostly on this market being resolved incorrectly, accidentally or otherwise. hello cynicism my old friend

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