Will Ben Landau-Taylor tell us to evacuate for risk of nuclear war before Apr 1 2022?
23
49
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO
Ben Landau-Taylor recently tweeted this: https://twitter.com/benlandautaylor/status/1495908407114702852 His blog post has a sign up form; if you sign up, hell tell you if he has decided to evacuate. This question will resolve YES if Ben sends an email to this list telling us to evacuate, or telling us that he himself evacuated, before Apr 1 2022 00:00 Eastern time. - If a nuclear missile targets a major US city, this will resolve YES regardless of what Ben does - If it turns out that he tried to send this message, but some technological disruption prevents me from receiving it, this will resolve YES. I will wait a bit before resolving the question if it looks like there are major technological disruptions. - If there are other points that need clarification, I'll put them in the comments. Feb 24, 8:08pm: I'm going to try to increase the pool on this question (without distorting the market) by buying some YES and NO...
Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ300 of NO
I appreciate everyone's trust in me resolving this correctly. See you in 9 hours, and happy 2022Q2!
bought Ṁ150 of NO
I guess this is too capital intensive for people to sell it down as time passes? Anyways if you want recent-ish reassuring posts there's https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022 and https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1503450564482510851. I'll also sell the YES side of my ante-upping transaction...
bought Ṁ1 of YES
https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1499022955346542595 This isn't Ben but still seems relevant
bought Ṁ18 of YES
It worked! Enjoy the bigger pool...
bought Ṁ1 of YES
hedging mostly on this market being resolved incorrectly, accidentally or otherwise. hello cynicism my old friend

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