Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $50,000.00 USD at any point before July 1, 2027 (defined as June 30, 2027, at 23:59:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be determined using the daily low or historical intraday data of the BTC-USD pair on the following sources:

• Primary Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD

• Secondary Source: CoinGecko's Bitcoin Price Index

If a brief "flash crash" occurs on a single exchange but is not reflected in the aggregate index prices of major data aggregators (like Yahoo Finance or CoinGecko), it will not trigger a YES resolution. A verified transaction price below $50,000.00 USD on major spot exchanges (e.g., Coinbase, Binance) reflected in the historical daily low is required.

Background

Following a period of consolidation in the high-$50,000s and low-$60,000s during mid-2026, Bitcoin experienced a strong rally in late August 2026, pushing past the $80,000 mark. This price movement has been driven by shifting macroeconomic factors, including U.S. Treasury buybacks and renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This market monitors whether a subsequent correction will push the asset back below the $50,000 psychological support level before mid-2027.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.