Market Question

Will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reach $45,000 USD or lower before it reaches $100,000 USD or higher?

Resolution

This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any time before December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM PT, the BTC/USD spot price reaches $45,000 or lower before it reaches $100,000 or higher, as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.

This market resolves to “No” if the BTC/USD spot price reaches $100,000 or higher before it reaches $45,000 or lower, as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.

Price Source

The resolution source for this market is the Coinbase BTC/USD spot price, using 1-minute candlestick data from Coinbase’s primary BTC/USD market.

Definition of “Touches”

$45,000 is considered reached if the LOW of any 1-minute BTC/USD candlestick is ≤ $45,000.

$100,000 is considered reached if the HIGH of any 1-minute BTC/USD candlestick is ≥ $100,000.

Intraminute wicks count. Closing prices are not required.

Ordering Rule

The first threshold reached in time determines the outcome. Once one threshold is reached, the market immediately resolves, regardless of future price action.

Same-Candle Edge Case

If both thresholds are reached within the same 1-minute candlestick, Coinbase trade-level timestamps within that minute will be used to determine which threshold was hit first. If ordering cannot be conclusively determined, the market resolves to “No.”

Data Integrity & Fallback

If Coinbase 1-minute candlestick data becomes unavailable, a consensus of reputable BTC/USD spot exchanges (such as Kraken or Bitstamp) may be used. Temporary outages or API delays do not invalidate legitimate candlestick prints.

Market Expiry

If neither $45,000 nor $100,000 is reached by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM PT, the market resolves to “No.”