Will the majority of physicists accept Strong Anthropic Principle as the most likely solution for fine tuning?
Before 2030
Before 2035
Before 2040
Before 2045
Before 2050

The fine tuning problem in physics is an observation that multiple fundaental physical constants seem to independently fall into relatively small intervals enabling the existence of life.

The Strong Anthropic Principle is a proposed explanation for fine tuning which posits the existence of multiple universes or parts of the universe with different values of basic constants. In a multiverse like that we necessarily find ourselves in the part which support the existence of life and consciousness.

Each option in this question will be resolve based on one of the following:

  1. If a poll is conducted among physicists about the most likely explanation for fine-tuning, its results are used directly. The poll should be reasonably representative.

  2. In absence of such poll, I'll try to find at least 2 professional physicists (preferably Manifold users) and ask them whether in their opinion Anthropic Principle is the preferred explanation of fine tuning among physicists. Note: I will not be asking whether they personally believe this explanation, but whether it's the preferred explanation in the field.

  3. If previous options don't resolve the question, I'm going to ask the best available at the time version of ChatGPT or another AI, whether they think Strong Anthropic Principle is accepted as most likely true in physics community.

As soon as one of these methods unambiguously point to Strong Anthropic Principle being accepted, I'll resolve all remaining options to YES. Otherwise the options will resolve to NO as soon as the respective period is over.

Astronomers and cosmologists count as physicists for the purposes of this question. Philosophers do not, except those that also hold a PhD in Physics or Astronomy.

In case the research in Physics gets dominated by AIs, I will try to adapt the resolution criteria to gauge their opinions. If this is for some reason impossible, I might resolve some of the options as N/A.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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