The market will resolve as YES if within the next 30 days (until April 22nd) Russian authorities will use March 22nd terrorist attack in Moscow as a justification for an escalation of the war against Ukraine. This could include one of the following:
New mobilization (it can start more than 30 days from now, but needs to be announced within the next 30 days)
Attack on Ukraine using new types of weapons (e.g. nuclear or chemical)
Attack on Ukrainian cities or infrastructure at significantly higher volume than the previous ones (more than ~50 rockets in one day, please correct me in comments if this estimation is not correct)
Attack on any of the allies of Ukraine
The possible escalation has to be explicitly linked to the terrorist attack in an official statement of Russian president, Ministry of foreign affairs or a similar entity. An answer at a press conference counts. Speculations by Russian propagandists don't.
Related question:
/OlegEterevsky/a-year-from-now-will-manifold-users
I do not bet on my own questions.
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@traders I follow news from Russia and Ukraine pretty closely and I haven't seen anything that would fit the description of the market. No new mobilization and the rate of attacks on the infrastructure relatively similar to what was happening before.
Resolving to NO.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-ukraine-arrest-vasyl-malyuk-security-chief-2024-4
News: Moscow court arrests Ukraine's SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk in absentia.
The pretext is the Crocus City Hall attack and events like the Crimean Bridge bombing, the killing of Darya Dugina, etc...
@vernalpool They've been charging Ukrainian officials with crimes all throughout the war, so it's nothing new. But, yes, they are pretty unambiguously pointing the finger at Ukraine.