Will one neutrino mass hierarchy be generally accepted to be correct by the end of 2035? At the very least, this means there must be a published result confirming the correct ordering at at least the five sigma level.

Only the masses of the first three eigenstates matter. If sterile neutrinos exist, they won't affect the resolution of this market.

See also /JosephNoonan/what-is-the-neutrino-mass-ordering