In the year 4000 CE, what will be the starting date for the most commonly used calendar?

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4000

17%

A date before 1 CE.

49%

1 CE (same as our calendar)

A date between 1 CE and 1000 CE

A date between 1001 CE and 2000 CE

15%

A date in the 21st century

14%

A date after 2100

Our current Gregorian and preceding Julian calendars, counting years from 1 CE have been in use for a bit longer than a thousand years. It is possible that in the future this calendar will be replaced due to political changes or space expansion. If this happens, what will be the starting date of the new calendar?

The market will be resolved in 4000 CE (by our current calendar), based on the most commonly used calendar at the time. If the calendar stays the same as it is now, the option "1 CE" will be selected. Here are a few examples of calendars fulfilling other options:

A date before 1 CE:

Various calendars from the "creation of the world", Anno Mundi
Holocene calendar aka Kurzgesagt "Human Era"

A date between 1 CE and 1000 CE

Islamic Hijri calendar starting in 622 CE

A date between 1001 CE and 2000 CE

Unix time, starting in 1970

I do not bet on my own questions.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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It seems to me the traders here seriously underestimate the amount of stuff that can happen between years 2100 and 4000.

For future reference: today is 2024-03-26, which corresponds to Julian day 2460396. This question is set to end in the year 4000 of our current calendar, which begins on Julian day 3182030, or 721634 days from today. Give or take a few days if the Revised Julian calendar gets widespread adoption.

Oh, I and forgot to add – the year begins at Unix time 64_060_581_600.

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