Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080? | Manifold

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080?

10

1kṀ241

2080

14%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2081.

Resolves NO otherwise.

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If the AI markets are to be believed, this should probably be a lot higher, since it seems unlikely that an AI that wipes out humanity would use the Gregorian calendar.

(Hint: those markets are not to be believed.)

Related market: https://manifold.markets/AnT/will-we-replace-the-calendar-by-end

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?

34% chance. Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2041. Resolves NO otherwise.

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Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?

Will Humans become extinct in 2400?

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Will humans go extinct before 2100? [Resolves to Metaculus in 2027]

Will I be alive at the start of 2080?

Will the world mostly converge on a single date format before 31/29/30?

Will we be able to control the weather before 2040?

Will the total world population peak before the end of 2090?

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