Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080? | Manifold

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080?

Plus

10

Ṁ241

2080

14%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2081.

Resolves NO otherwise.

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If the AI markets are to be believed, this should probably be a lot higher, since it seems unlikely that an AI that wipes out humanity would use the Gregorian calendar.

(Hint: those markets are not to be believed.)

Related market: https://manifold.markets/AnT/will-we-replace-the-calendar-by-end

Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?

34% chance. Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2041. Resolves NO otherwise.

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In the year 4000 CE, what will be the starting date for the most commonly used calendar?

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